Previously, Tom told Laura that Gaius's tribunal would be the death of us all, but she didn't want to be his girlfriend anymore anyway because she already had two of those. Tory acted sketchy as shit, and previous to this, she and Dualla, among others, tried to fix the election. Another one of those, Saul Tigh, has been edging ever closer to becoming an actual no-shit salty-dog sea pirate, but has not as yet crossed the line. Sam tried to make friends. Lee cried for two whole weeks about losing his boyfriend, then bent over for the creepiest old guy he could find to call him "son," just like retarded twinks have been doing since the first gay caveman invented house music. (Vocal by Kylie Minogue, strangely enough, which helps with my theory that she's one of the Final Five.) Roslin was making scarier and scarier decisions, because she had to; Saul poisoned Ellen and she accepted gratefully, because they had to; Adama clipped his son's wings after Kara died, because he had to.
Previous to that, Laura Roslin received visions from the Gods, and they pointed the way to Earth, and they caused a division in the Fleet that took months of pain and death to repair; those that followed her dreams of hope knelt down, and she walked among them, laying her hands on them and blessing them, as a prophet. Now, Gaius Baltar has walked among the enemy, and learned to think like them, and brings a new kind of hope, a new way to lay down burdens, and rest. It's not the first time he's tried it. He's causing a division in the Fleet that may never be repaired, the roots of which stretch back two years, and ten thousand more before that.
Previously, Gaius Baltar won the election, and Tory and Dee (and Saul) tried to take it away from him. He won by the Fleet's decision, because they wanted to go home. He won because he needed to win, and he screwed Gina, Laura, Lee and Bill in the process, and these were all equal for him, because he needed to win. As a result, Cloud 9 was lost, and the Cylons came to New Caprica and forced a surrender, and by the time humanity was freed almost 6,000 people had died. As a direct result. And when the Cylons came, and their oppression increased, so did the force of revolution, and the stakes got higher, and the losses greater. Duck murdered 200 people at the SS graduation; Three forced Gaius to order 200 executions in turn, including Tom Zarek and Laura Roslin. It was only a technicality, an existential ass-cover, but what it took from Gaius, and Gaeta, still hasn't been recouped. Laura and Tom lived, and Hera lived, and Cally, and the Chief, and Tory and Saul and Kara and Sam. Ellen died, though. And Maya.