And once you've seen the whole episode, yes, all of this makes sense. (Sort of.) My point is that we've now had about ten minutes of nonsense, building up to a future surprise, half of which was spent treating us/Amy like we're idiots for not understanding his mad ravings, which only make sense -- to the extent that they will -- in the context of the episode as a whole. That's not storytelling. That's taking the long way around your ass to get to your elbow, for the sole purpose of cheap emotional manipulation: To make us think something is happening, when in fact nothing is happening. (Did Moffat write "Midnight"? Hang on... Ha! Nope. No, he did not.)
Amy asks why he did that annoying thing with the water -- giving him ample reason and opportunity to, and zero reason not to, explain himself -- and he goes like this, "Dunno, I think a lot. It's hard to keep track. Now, police state. Do you see it yet?" Fuck off. I mean, maybe trapped at the bottom of this "police state" nonsense is some idea about how he can't explain himself because of surveillance, but by the same token you wouldn't go around fucking with people's water and being so annoying, so it's a zero sum. And where is the intense evidence of this "police state" business?
Winders report this behavior to a silly woman in a huge red cape, who is herself surrounded by glasses of water and wears a silly Phantom mask, and she goes, "Did he do the thing?" Right, so now instead of anybody pointing out that it's a stupid thing to do -- and stolen right from Jurassic Park to boot -- we've got another character propping it up, like, yes the thing with the glasses makes sense, but to have her condition of being notified about the Doctor be that he does the exact same thing with the glass of water? Does that make any sense at all in the context of the episode? "Sometime in the next three hundred years, a dude might show up and do this annoying thing I do with the glasses of water"? No, it doesn't. It's just another neat image -- the cape, the mask, the water glasses like candles -- that got plopped into an episode that would have been a lot more interesting and hella more meaningful without half of them.
The evidence for the police state theory is a little girl, crying. Pay attention, this is very important and insightful: "Children cry because they want attention, because they're hurt or afraid. When they cry silently, it's because they just can't stop." If you wondering where the Doctor gets off telling us about kids, or what any of this has to do with anything except the Very Meaningful Ending, you're not alone: Amy asks him straight up if he's a parent. He doesn't answer. But he does make a very good point, which he could have made twenty literal minutes ago: "Hundreds of parents walking past, and not one of them's asking her what's wrong, which means they already know, and it's something they don't talk about."