Survivor
Going For The Oscar

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Miss Alli: B- | Grade It Now!
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Elsewhere, Todd asks Amanda and Courtney whether they think he has cause for concern. He says he can tell that Erik and Peih-Gee are trying to convince Denise to change her vote. Courtney tells him to talk to Denise as soon as they're gone. Todd says that "Denise isn't stupid," and I don't know what he means by that, but if Denise isn't stupid, she's not going to settle for a guarantee of F4 when she has a shot at F3. Not a great shot, but a shot. Of course, this is a textbook example of what happens to people who can't take an immediate risk when there's immediate safety available, even if it's obvious that the immediate risk is the only way to avoid total disaster one step down the road. I understand the "just get through each week" philosophy, but not this late in the game. They're going to boot Denise at F4; she should be able to discern that this is true. Nothing is going to save her if she goes to F4 with Todd and Amanda except winning immunity. And she's probably not going to win immunity. So her chances of surviving to F3 if she continues down this road are merely her chances of winning immunity at F4. Her chances of surviving to F3 if she goes with Erik and Peih-Gee are the chances that they'll win the tiebreaker (let's say 50%), plus the chances that she'll win immunity at F4, minus the chances that they'll screw her and take Courtney instead, minus the chances that Courtney will win immunity at F4...well, not really; I'm making all of this up. But you see what I'm saying. There are a lot of factors, but it has to be better than just relying on winning immunity, because if Denise wins immunity, she'll get there either way. Even if her odds of succeeding on a tie-forcing plan aren't good, they're better than her odds otherwise, and that's a very hard thing for people to recognize. Getting to the point where you acknowledge that your current plan has zero chance of success, and you therefore should absolutely sign on to a plan with a 20% chance of success? The mind resists this kind of thing. For her part, Denise interviews that she's thinking about whether she'll win against Erik and Peih-Gee versus Todd and Amanda, which is stupid, because it won't matter, because she won't be there with Todd and Amanda, because the fact that she has a decent chance of winning against Amanda and Todd is exactly why they will not take her to F3. Come on, Denise. Light the pilot light.

Todd tells Denise -- in front of Peih-Gee -- that he's "had [her] back." I'd like to know when exactly Todd has had to have Denise's back. Like, never? Todd tells Peih-Gee he's sorry about voting out her "buddy." Peih-Gee says it's not like she's surprised. When Peih-Gee gets up and leaves, Todd tells Denise that he "trusts" her. Denise admits that this is "do or die" for her, and that she's "a little flippin' out." She looks up at the sky. "Can you help me?" she asks, and we get a cut to a big bolt of lightning. ("Deniiiise, this is God. You are going to be voted out at final foooooour.")

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Survivor

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