Malcolm stands alone in the ocean. Lisa says something to Penner, but it sounds dubbed in. They claim she tells Penner that she can't lie to him and she's not totally in with him, but I think she said something else, because Penner immediately tells her to "cut the crap" and go for a walk with him. And then he asks what's wrong, if she wants to go home or vote him out. Why would he even have to ask if she just said she's not totally in with him? Weird editing. Anyway, Lisa tells Penner that after he refused to make a finals alliance with her and Skupin, she took another offer and now she's being told to vote him out tonight. Penner is gobsmacked. Has he really not considered that he might be going? He knows that he was nearly voted out not many weeks ago -- what's changed? I just can't believe how comfortable he was, knowing that everyone's first choice, Abi, was safe. Of course, they're going to vote Penner. Who did he think they would vote? This is his own fault; he got too complacent.
Penner interviews that Lisa has lost her mind and she's going to stick to her guns even though he thinks that her guns are ridiculous. He doesn't explain why they're ridiculous, so I suspect it's because he's screwed and doesn't actually have anything to do with Lisa, because from Lisa's standpoint, I think it's a pretty good deal. Penner is stunned and just asks the classic negotiating question: "What are we gonna do?" Lisa advises him to "do [his] magic." Penner interviews that Lisa got played by Malcolm and Denise and he was trying to play both ends against the middle and wouldn't make a commitment, which is now going to lead to his demise unless he can scramble.
Penner sits with Carter and Abi and tells them that they're going to vote for Denise. Abi immediately agrees, like she has any other options. Shut it, Abi. Penner interviews that he's wary of Malcolm, but he has an Idol; Denise is his closest ally, so she's on the chopping block. Penner is acting all put out that he has to make these decisions or scramble, but what did he think was going to happen? I'm unclear on who he thought was taking him to the finals or whom he thought he was taking. And whom he thought would go tonight instead of Abi. It is a mystery.
Penner approaches Skupin and says that his three-person group is voting for Denise and they need Skupin to join them to make it work. Penner tells Skupin that he's the swing vote, even if he doesn't want to be. Skupin doesn't want to stick his neck out alone and asks Penner if he thinks Lisa will join him. Why is he asking Penner? Why not ask Lisa? If Penner were smart, he would get Lisa over there too and force Skupin and Lisa to turn him down to his face right now. Penner says he can't lie to Skupin and he thinks Lisa is conflicted, but won't betray her alliance, so she's going to vote out Penner. Skupin interviews that his dilemma is trying to figure out jury votes, because the people he votes with will like him and the people he votes against will hate him. He also believes he could beat Penner in the final three. That's fine, but who's your third person, because everyone hates the veterans so a newbie might win with Penner and Skupin by default.