You know, it's interesting, because it's counterintuitive, but Cirie hasn't figured out the likable-person strategy. If you're a likable person, the only chance you have, really, at actually winning is to align with at least some other people who are also likable. This is how Yul won: the other people were moderately likable, and therefore believed they had a chance against him. This is how Earl won: if he'd been aligned with Mookie and Rocky and Alex, for instance, they'd have thrown him out at F4, just as has happened to so many people who were too likable relative to their late-game alliance-mates -- Cirie herself being the best example, but also Lydia, Darrah, and even Yau-Man himself, to some degree. It's that point around F4 where people will take the opportunity to throw out the lovable person who would clearly beat them at a final vote, and that's where it happened to Yau-Man. You want to be likable enough to win, but you can't be the most conspicuously likable person in your alliance unless you're absolutely positive that you're going to win a shitload of immunity challenges, because they will get rid of you. It's really just one of the many points in life where being awesome simply does not pay. I mean, seriously, Cirie's theory here is silly, because it's so unlikely that the game is going to play out the way she thinks, where either the final five will be her, Jonathan, Yau-Man, Eliza, and Ami; or the final five will be her, Amanda, Parvati, Ozzy, and James, so it's really academic. But if we pretend that it's going to play out this way, what combination of two people from one or the other of those tribes has the smallest chance in hell of winning a million dollars against Cirie? The answer is, to me, very obvious: Amanda and Parvati. Frankly, I'd rather flush a million dollars down the world's biggest toilet than give it to Parvati, and I don't think that's an uncommon point of view. So while it sounds good to pick them, because you have the best chance to beat them in a vote, they're going to know they have no chance to beat you. Therefore, it's very unlikely that they will let you get that far. You've got to take some likability with you heading into F3, or you won't be there at all, you know what I mean? That's why this is hard for me to understand: Cirie is choosing her F3 alliance relying, apparently, on people giving her their word, when that's basically the least reliable way in history to know who will actually do what. What has been reliable? The most likable person getting booted at F4. Remember that, Cirie? DO YOU?